By Randal O’Toole, The Antiplanner
Editor’s Note: This post recently appeared on The Antiplanner website and we thought it was an important piece for all NMA supporters to read and digest. Part 2 will be featured in next week’s E-Newsletter.
Last month, anti-automobile activists led by the Congress for the New Urbanism announced the formation of a national Freeway Fighters Network. The network opposes new freeways and freeway expansions and wants to shift freeway money to other forms of transportation. Among other things, they object to new freeway capacity because it induces more highway travel.
I have a message for these anti-auto activists: The war on the automobile is over. The automobile won. More accurately, auto drivers and users won. It is time for those engaged in this war to stop wasting their time, and everyone else’s, and start doing something productive. People concerned about the impacts of the automobile should give up trying to reduce driving, which has never worked, and instead encourage new automobiles and highways that are safer, cleaner, and more energy efficient.
The Lost Cause
The war on the automobile and freeways began in the 1960s. As noted in an earlier policy brief, auto opponents’ hatred of cars may have been more justified then than it is today. Cars were gas guzzlers, getting just 13.5 miles per gallon. From 1966 to 1973, traffic accidents killed 50,000 to 56,000 people a year. Toxic air pollution darkened urban skies and created health problems for many people.
The federal government attacked these problems using two strategies. First, the Environmental Protection Agency, which was created in 1970, encouraged cities to declare war on driving. Instead of building more roads, the cities spent billions of dollars on urban transit. This allowed urban freeways to become congested in the hope that slower speeds would discourage people from driving. Nearly 100 cities also closed downtown areas to automobiles and even more reduced the capacities of many streets to move traffic.
The second strategy was based on making better automobiles. In 1967, the National Highway Traffic Safety Commission issued standards for ever-safer automobiles. In 1970, Congress directed the EPA to issue rules for ever-cleaner automobiles. In 1975, Congress directed the Department of Transportation to issue rules requiring ever-more-fuel-efficient autos.
Five decades later, highway fatalities declined by 35 percent, toxic pollution from motor vehicles declined by nearly 90 percent, and cars today average more than 28 miles per gallon and even light trucks (SUVs, pickups, and full-sized vans) get better than 20. All these improvements happened solely because of the strategy of improving motor vehicles.
Meanwhile, the war on automobiles failed so miserably that total miles of driving tripled between 1969 and 2019. By increasing congestion, the anti-automobile strategy has wasted more fuel and generated more pollution than it stopped. Cities that closed downtown streets, unless they already had large numbers of pedestrians, found that the businesses in those downtowns died, and most reopened them again.
Per capita miles of driving have declined during recessions and, most recently, the pandemic, but in-between such events it appears that decades of anti-highway activism have had no effect on the amount of driving Americans do.
Anti-highway activists and the decision by many cities to stop increasing road capacities had almost no effects on the growth of driving. In 1960, Americans drove cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles an average of 11 miles per person. By 2019, this had grown by nearly 150 percent to more than 27 miles per person. Congestion had grown tremendously in those years, but people responded by driving somewhere else.
Between 1960 and 2000, per capita driving grew because of the growth in the people and households that had cars. In 1960, 22.5 percent of households had no cars; by 2000 this had fallen to 9.4 percent. Between 2000 and 2019, the growth in per capita driving slowed because the market for cars was nearly saturated. By 2019, 8.6 percent of households had no cars, only a small decline from 2000. Yet per capita driving continued to grow, if slowly, showing that efforts to reduce driving by opposing new freeways have failed.
Per capita driving has grown more slowly in recent years mainly because the decline in the share of households with no autos has also grown more slowly. The correlation between households with no cars and per capita driving is –.98, which is nearly perfect.
Spending more money on transit hasn’t made any difference. Since 1990, the Denver urban area spent well over $9 billion (in today’s dollars) on rail transit, yet per capita driving grew from 17.9 miles per day in 1990 to 22.8 miles in 2019. Atlanta, Dallas, San Diego, Washington, and other urban areas also spent enormous amounts of money on transit improvements yet saw per capita driving grow.
Ending freeway construction doesn’t help. Other than the Big Dig, which added an insignificant amount of capacity, Boston stopped building freeways in the 1970s. Yet daily per capita driving grew from 18.5 miles in 1990 to 25.4 miles in 2019.
Some urban areas that stopped freeway construction and spent money on transit instead did see a slight decline in per capita driving. Driving in Portland declined from 19.1 miles per day in 1990 to 18.5 miles in 2019. Yet there is likely a self-selection issue here: Portland’s anti-automobile mentality has attracted many people who don’t want to drive while it may have pushed people who want to drive to locate in other areas.
The Benefits of Induced Demand
The anti-freeway network’s reliance on the old induced-demand myth demonstrates how warped their reasoning is, as so-called induced demand—which would be more accurately titled release of repressed demand—should be considered a benefit, not a cost, of new highway construction. When someone builds any new infrastructure, they do so in the hope that such infrastructure will be used. There is not much point in spending large amounts of money on increasing the capacity of cell phone networks, railroads, airports, water and sewer systems, electrical generation facilities, or highways if no one needs or uses that increased capacity.
There are clearly places where new road capacity will not lead to more driving. For example, U.S. highway 50 in Nevada is sometimes called the “loneliest road in America” because it gets so little use. Turning it from a two-lane road to a four-lane road would not induce any more people to drive on it, mainly because there aren’t very many people in that area in the first place. Building more road capacity here would be a waste.
In congested areas of many cities, new roads will lead to more driving. That’s a good thing, because the increased driving represents people reaching new economic opportunities and businesses delivering more goods to people at lower costs.
Many of the projects the anti-freeway people would like to see money spent on, such as light-rail lines or more Amtrak service, will not result in much, if any, new travel. Ridership on many new light-rail lines, for example, has been offset by decreased ridership on bus lines. All the light rail does is give people who were already using transit a more expensive form of transit or, worse, provide rail transit to high-income people while cutting bus service to low-income people. Even most high-speed rail projects only promise to take people out of existing forms of travel (most of which cost less), not to generate new travel.
In short, new rail projects don’t induce demand, meaning they generate no new economic activity; they merely cost taxpayers money. According to the anti-highway people, spending money on projects that transfer people from low-cost to high-cost forms of travel is supposed to be better than building new roads that generate new travel.
The induced-demand argument is that building roads won’t relieve congestion because more people will drive on the new roads. But the anti-highway answer to congestion, which is to build no new roads and to let congestion get worse, is not a solution; it is an admission of failure.
According to the Texas Transportation Institute, the annual cost of congestion to auto commuters has grown from $15 billion in 1982 to $190 billion in 2019. This doesn’t count the cost to truck drivers, which has similarly grown. This means the anti-highway groups have succeeded at something, though it is hardly something for them to be proud of. But increasing congestion hasn’t prevented the growth in miles of driving.
Unlike money wasted building light-rail lines, which at least benefits contractors and construction workers, congestion is a deadweight loss to society, benefitting no one except those who get schadenfreude from watching others stuck in traffic. The idea that not building roads is the solution to congestion misrepresents the nature and causes of roadway congestion.
Increases in congestion between 1982 and 2005 and between 2009 and 2019 failed to slow the growth in per capita driving. Per capita driving growth only slowed during the collapse of the 2006 housing bubble and the pandemic. Congestion data from Texas Transportation Institute’s 2021 Urban Mobility Report.
Traffic congestion has two causes. First, roads are poorly priced. Fuel taxes and vehicle registration fees are supposed to be user fees. Paying for roads out of such fees, however, fails to link the use of specific roads with their cost. Second, roads are the only resource whose productivity declines when demand increases. A typical freeway lane can move up to 2,000 vehicles per hour in free-flowing traffic, but when traffic slows throughput can decline below 1,000 vehicles per hour.
A mileage-based user fee system could fix both problems. Ironically, many anti-freeway groups support mileage-based user fees because they hope to spend the revenues on transit and other projects, which in turn leads road users to oppose such fees despite the benefits they can provide because they don’t want to see the fees they pay wasted.
Americans today are facing the worst inflation in the last forty years due to Congressional spending of trillions of dollars on programs and projects that don’t increase productivity. The additional money in people’s pockets combined with no additional things to spend it on makes everything more expensive. So it is particularly ironic that highway opponents demonize new highways precisely because they generate more productivity.
In Part 2 of The Automobile Won, O’Toole delves into the benefits of autos.
Randal O’Toole, the Antiplanner, is a land-use and transportation policy analyst and author of Gridlock: Why We’re Stuck in Traffic and What to Do about It.