When Will Gas Prices Go Down?

By Lauren Fix

Gas prices are rising daily and hitting record numbers at the pump. This is causing financial pain at the pump for millions of drivers. Many people are asking why fuel is so expensive and who’s to blame. Consumers are wanting to know when they might see some relief and lower prices.

Soaring gas prices are having a very real impact on household budgets. According to one Wall Street estimate, a typical family may have seen additional costs of $2,000 per year, simply due to the higher costs. On March 11th, gas prices again reached a new peak, $4.24 for regular, $4.90 for premium, diesel $5.09 according to the Gas Buddy app. Gas prices have been rising for more than a year and this is far from over.

Drivers did see some small relief for a few pennies per gallon when gasoline reserves, which should be saved for emergencies, were dumped on the market. Sadly, that release was only two days of what we use daily. Then prices increased and continue to do so.

So when will gas prices ever go down?

The state of California has the highest gas prices with the highest gas taxes at over 50 cents per gallon. Families are budgeting for higher gas costs and cutting spending in other areas. Some Americans are already driving less due to the higher prices. One in three adults say they reduced their car usage last month, with most blaming higher gas prices. As a reminder, gas prices were $1.94 per gallon in April 2020. This huge price increase affects every driver, every rideshare, transportation of goods, food costs, and literally everything we do and buy.

US producers said they are boosting production, but warned that supplies could take a while to trickle through to the market and move prices at the pump.

The US imports less than 10 percent of its oil and gas from Russia. So why are prices rising so much in the US if the nation doesn’t depend on Russia for fuel? The surge in gas prices is due to the larger global oil market.

President Joe Biden’s policies for higher gas prices were made on day one with the administration’s decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, and the executive order to pause oil and gas drilling on federal land in January 2021. A federal judge in Louisiana blocked that order in June, however, we haven’t returned to energy independence.

Experts say the US is producing more oil now than it was it was in 2020. Oil and gas drilling has increased, but companies in the US are constrained by tight supplies of rigs, trucks and labor in order to supply more oil.

The government emphasis on shifting away from fossil fuels and toward electric vehicles may add uncertainty for oil and gas producers, which could give them concern in boosting production.

So when will gas prices go down? 

Expect gas prices to remain high for more months. Overall inflation will likely get worse in March and April. The barrage of rising costs is taking a toll on consumers across the board. Inflation could start easing later in the year but is likely to remain high, many experts have forecasts that the inflation rate will dip to 5.5 percent by September. There are many variable in play that could change the rate.

If oil prices remain below $100 for a while, drivers may eventually see some relief at the pump, with prices falling below $4 a gallon. Sadly, gas prices fall twice as slowly as they rise after a major change in oil prices. This means if it took four weeks for gas prices per gallon to increase 25 cents, it would take them eight weeks to fall 25 cents once oil prices returned to their starting level.

Some people are claiming price fixing. This is not true. There are over 14,000 gas station outlets in the country, with no single company controlling more than 5 percent of the market, so collusion between owners to keep prices high is unlikely true. Hence, owners wait until they see a trend in oil prices and costs before they reveal the price on the tank. Gasoline typically gives a minimal profit to retailers. They make more money when you buy something from their stores.

For now, you can find the cheapest gas through the Gas Buddy app and club discounts. Maintain your cars and forget the drive through to get the most for your money.

Lauren Fix, The Car Coach®, is a nationally recognized automotive expert, analyst, author, and television host.  A trusted car expert, Lauren provides an insider’s perspective on a wide range of automotive topics and aspects, energy, industry, consumer news, and safety issues.   

Lauren is the CEO of Automotive Aspects and the Editor-in-Chief of Car Coach Reports, a global automotive news outlet. She is an automotive contributor to national and local television news shows, including Fox News, Fox Business, CNN International, The Weather Channel, Inside Edition, Local Now News, Community Digital News, and more. Lauren also co-hosts a regular show on ABC.com with Paul Brian called “His Turn – Her Turn” and hosts regular radio segments on USA Radio – DayBreak. 

Lauren is honored to be inducted into the Women’s Transportation Hall of Fame and a Board Member of the Buffalo Motorcar Museum and Juror / President for the North American Car, Utility & Truck of the Year Awards.  

Check her out on Twitter and Instagram @LaurenFix.

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